Holger Narrog

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KAZATOMPROM update March 22nd 2026

Kazatomprom is the world biggest and lowest cost uranium miner with an attributable production of 13500 tons U/yr. 2025. The uranium is mined by acid leaching ISR technology which is a very cost-effective extraction method. I`m not aware about the impact of this type of mining on the environment but it seem that it would be challenging to get it permitted in Western Europe. The region it is applied is mostly desert.

Kazakhstan is part of the GUS (former states of the Soviet Union). It tries to keep the balance between its big neighbours China and Russia. It does not support Putin in his war efforts in Ukraine.

The majority of KAZATOMPROM is owned by the Kazakhstan governments "Sovereign Wealth Fund "Samruk-Kazyna" ("Samruk-Kazyna"). This fund owns 75% of the shares. The free-float is 25%.

Part of KAZATOMPROM is a 51% share of ULBA a metallurgical plant that produce U3O8 , ceramic grade UO2 and fuel pellet production shops, Rare metals, Beryllium and Tantal.

This is not a recommendation or proposal to do anything. The data written in this article is not guarranteed. It is my private personal opinion. I own a position of KAZATOMPROM shares that`s why I`m not independing.

Risks & Opportunities

The KAZ realized uranium prices differ from spot market prices as most of the uranium is sold by long term contracts. The uranium price recovered in 2021 and went up further with the war in Ukraine. KAZ is very profitable. Future profitability is damped a by a new royalty scheme.

KAZ production is limited due to a lack of sulphuric acid. It will start-up a new owned sulphuric acid plant in 2027. KAZ intend to reduce its nominal production level 2026 from 32,777 tonnes of U3O8 to 28300 tonnes.

Companies/shares from Kazachstan are similar inexpensive as that of Russian companies before the war in Ukraine. The biggest risk is the political situation that includes the risk of internal and external corruption, expropriation. Asset stripping, arbitrary taxes might happen at any time. For an outsider it is not possible to evaluate the political risks for the company and its shareholders.

The company has very low production costs and is thus even with a very low uranium price profitable. The worldwide nuclear power generation and thus uranium consumption is on the other hand very stable, the uranium production is lower than consumption hence it seem obvious that the uranium price will increase sooner or later and thus the profits of the uranium mines will soar sooner or later.

With the high inflation of the after covid panic period production costs are rising quickly. KAZ production costs rose from 12.6$/lb 2021 to 16.2$/lb in 2022, 21.4$ in 2023, 28$/lb in 2024. 30$ in 2025 exp. A main cost driver is the cost of sulphuric acid that is about 13% of the Group’s uranium production costs.

Some Numbers

Uranium is the dominating product of Kazatomprom

Shares and GDRs %

Samruk-Kazyna 163,377,456 63

Ministry of Finance Kazakhstan 31,140,000 12

Public free-float 64,839,152 25

Total share capital 259,356,608 100

Uranium Reserves

the uranium reserves/production ratio is nearly 21 years which is not bad.

These number depend very much on the grades that are considered and are fluctuating. It is an indication only. Some mines will become exhausted in a few years others will last very long.

Uranium Price

The uranium price is strongly fluctuating. After a nuclear power plant accidents most of the Japanese nukes went out of operation. Japanese utilities sold off their surplus quantities. The market got out of balance. Now it seems to be back.

Mineral Taxiation Kazakhstan

From January 1, 2023, the tax base for the mineral extraction tax on uranium is determined as the weighted average price for uranium (in the form of natural uranium concentrate U3O8) from public sources for a certain reporting period, multiplied by the amount of uranium mined and the mineral extraction tax rate of 6%.

Starting from January 1, 2025, the applicable mineral extraction tax rate on uranium will be increased to 9%.

From January 1, 2026, a differentiated approach will be introduced for calculating the mineral extraction tax on uranium, depending on the actual annual production volumes for each subsoil use contract and prices for natural uranium concentrate (U3O8). Thus, the mineral extraction tax for annual production up to 500 tonnes will be 4%, up to 1,000 tonnes - 6%, up to 2,000 tonnes - 9%, up to 3,000 tonnes - 12%, up to 4,000 tonnes - 15% , over 4,000 tonnes - 18%.

If the weighted average price of natural uranium concentrate (U3O8) exceeds the prices established below, the mineral extraction tax rate increases by the following amount: over $70 per pound - 0.5%, over $80 per pound - 1%, over $90 per pound - 1, 5%, over $100 per pound - 2%, over $110 per pound - 2.5%.

Source 25, Interfax

Cost Situation 2022. The absolute numbers rose but the relative numbers might not have changed significantly in the last couple of years.

Source: https://www.kazatomprom.kz/storage/18/kap_investor_handout_fy2024mmbthf6gnudybmj5fndm.pdf Originally UxC

The ISR Mining method applied by Kazatomprom cannot be used everywhere – it requires a porous ore body like sand stone so fluids can circulate confining layers above and below the ore horizon. In Kazakhstan, these conditions are found naturally over hundreds of square kilometers, with confining clay layers above and below the porous sandstone ore. A hole is drilled sulphuric acid is pressed in the sandstone and harvested from other bore holes.

2023 Kazatomprom’s required 1.7 m tons of sulphuric acid. Kazatomprom has some internal capacitird, SKZ-U 500 k tons/yr, SSAP 180 k tons/yr.. A third plant is under construction, TQZ and planned to start-up 2027. The rest of the sulphuric acid is bought from thee market.

Withholding tax Kazachstan: 15%

Some News

2025/05/27 By ER Velasco on May 27, 2025 11:21 AM Former Kazatomprom Chief Commercial Officer Askar Batyrbayev was sentenced by an Astana court to 4.5 years in a medium-security penal colony for abuse of office for “deals detrimental to the state." Between January and December 2021, he reportedly negotiated 13 uranium-concentrate supply contracts with foreign firms—including Yellow Cake, Urenco and CNNC—at prices roughly 5% below prevailing spot rates and, in several cases, past deadline, breaching the company’s pricing methodology and causing a 20.1 billion-tenge loss to the Samruk-Kazyna sovereign wealth fund.

2025/05/13 "Kazatomprom" JSC announces an agreement on opening a credit line to finance the construction of the sulphuric acid plant with a capacity of 800 k tons/yr.. The total cost of the investment project is about 113 bln tenge, the amount of loan financing from the Development Bank of Kazakhstan is expected at 85 bln tenge. The participants of TQZ are Ballestra's Kazakh partner, the licensor and supplier of technology and equipment, with a 60% ownership interest and Kazatomprom-SaUran LLP with a 40% ownership interest. The plant is scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2027. (27)

2024/08/25 The KAZ reduced the 2025 forecast by 5000 tons. (26)

2024/01/14 The company had previously predicted that uranium production in the country would be 25 000 t to 25 500 metric tons this year and 30 500 to 31 500 t in 2025, compared with 20 500 t to 21 500 t in 2023. (24). "Despite the ongoing active search for alternative sources of sulfuric acid supply, current forecasts indicate that the company may find it difficult to achieve 90% production levels compared to subsoil use contract levels"(24) . The first question is what is actualized production forecast for Kazatomprom? Will they have to buy - expensive - uranium on the spot market to fulfill their contracts that would jeopardize profitability significantly? Why is it not possible to buy sulphuric acid in neighbouring China?

2023/10/05 KAZATOMPROM will increase its production in 2024 to 90% of its subsoil agreement levels and will return in 2025 to 100%. This might add 6000to of uranium production in 2025 (23)

2023/05/04 Kazatomprom subsidiary to start exploring for tantalum, niobium, beryllium in Aktobe region

2023/04/24 Kazatomprom plans to increase its production of sulfuric acid - the main reagent used in its in-situ leach (ISL) uranium operations - with the construction of a new 800,000 tonnes per year plant in the Sozak district of Kazakhstan's Turkestan region. (21)

2021/04/25 Kazatomprom on Friday announced that it would sell a 49% interest in Ortalyk to China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGNPC) for $435-million (17,18). under the Kazatomprom-CGN cooperation agreements, the parties agreed to construct a fuel assembly plant (Ulba-FA) at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant. CGN provided a guarantee that Ulba-FA’s production will be purchased by CGN, in exchange for Kazatomprom agreeing to sell to CGN or its affiliates a 49% interest in Kazatomprom’s wholly owned subsidiary, Ortalyk LLP.

2020/08/19 Kazatomprom says it will continue to "flex down" production by 20% through 2022. The company is also maintaining its 20% reduction in 2021(15) I hope that a soaring uranium price will change KAZATOMPROM`s mind.

2020/06/04 The Kazakhstan "Sovereign Wealth Fund "Samruk-Kazyna" ("Samruk-Kazyna") sold off a 4.55 % stake on June 3rd 2020. It increased the free-float to 23.4% increases the liquidy of the share (14). The share price decreased these days due to the surplus shares that entered the market.

2020/01/31 Kazatomprom announced today it intends to sell its 50% interest (minus one share) in Uranium Enrichment Centre JSC (UEC) to its partner in the joint venture, TVEL, for RUB6.253 billion (about USD100 million).(12)

2019/10/14 Due to low uranium prices many uranium only mines owned by private mining companies are on maintenance & care due to the low uranium price. For ex. it would cost about USD80 million to restart production of Langer Heinrich in Namibla at an average capacity of 5.2 million pounds per year. All-in sustaining cost (AISC) are estimated to USD33 per pound U3O8. This could be achieved during the planned restart within a 12-month commissioning time. (10)

2019/09 Samruk-Kazyna placed 9,863,021 GDR. Prior to the Placing it owned approximately 85 per cent of the /Company's issued share capital and following the completion of the Placing Samruk-Kazyna will own approximately 81.2 per cent of the Company's issued share capital.5,023,021 GDRs were placed through the AIX, of which 1,660,000 GDRs were placed to international investors and 3,363,021 GDR were placed to domestic investors, thereby satisfying domestic demand in full. (9)

2019/07 President Donald Trump decided to implement no new trade restrictions on uranium imports into the United States (6).

Kazatomprom sold 75% of solar manufacturing business. The Kazakh state-owned national atomic energy company has sold its three manufacturing units to an international consortium (5).

The Uranium Market

The last 10 years uranium prices suffered from the practical shutting down of nearly 50 nukes in Japan. Japanese utilities sold the uranium already bought. The uranium price saw lows of 20$/lb. In 2022 it started recovering and reached a price of 86$/lb at 2024 years end.

China and other Asian countries are increasing their nuclear power generation. Europa was shutting down nuclear power plants due to the green religion till the Ukraine war. Now some European countries announced a change in their position. Belgium announced to keep its nukes longer in service. France, UK announced efforts to build new nukes. All in all it seems that the demand for uranium will increase in the next 20 years. A uranium price of 50 - 100 $/lb seems realistic in the next 10 - 20 years.

Kazatomprom in Kasachstan December 30, 2025 9:33 AM Kazakhstan’s New Law Tightens Kazatomprom Uranium JV Terms For Foreign Partners.

Kazatomprom on Monday stated that Kazakhstan’s president has signed a law that gives the national uranium company more control over new discoveries and tighter conditions for extending or expanding uranium joint ventures with foreign partners.

In essence, Kazakhstan is saying “new uranium finds and future growth decisions should be mostly ours,” using two big thresholds, 75% and 90%, to enforce it.

Kazatomprom said it now has priority rights to get exploration licenses for prospective uranium areas and can reserve blocks that contain uranium mineralization or deposits. If another company finds uranium on certain solid mineral blocks it holds, Kazatomprom said the other company can only extend its license if it gives up the relevant blocks to the state.

The firm also said that if another subsoil user discovers a uranium deposit in a solid mineral formation, that party does not automatically get priority rights to produce uranium from it.

Some References:

KAZATOM Investor Relation https://www.kazatomprom.kz/en/investors/novosti

(27) 2025/05/13 https://www.research-tree.com/newsfeed/article/jsc-nac-kazatomprom-kap-updates-on-the-sulphuric-acid-plant-project-2841342

(26) 2024/08/25 https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kazatomprom-lowers-2025-uranium-production-expecta

(25) 2024/07/11 https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/104179/

(24) 2024/01/14 https://www.miningweekly.com/article/kazatomprom-may-cut-uranium-production-plan-2024-01-12

(23) 2023/10/05 https://smallcaps.com.au/kazatomprom-increase-production-2025-uranium-market-heats-up/

(22) 2023/05/04 https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/90274/

(21) 2023/04/24 https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kazatomprom-plans-new-acid-plant

(20) 2022/04/10 https://www.xtb.com/de/Marktanalysen/Trading-News/kazatomprom-aktien-steigen-aufgrund-des-exportwachstums

(19) 2021/07/03 https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kazatomprom-uranium-production-to-remain-flat-in-2

(18) 2021/04/26 https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kazatomprom,-CGN-sign-agreement-for-Ortalyk-stake